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Geopolitical Update - Iran
We are hearing a lot of noise about the events in Iran this weekend. While this is certainly much more geopolitically substantial than the operation in Venezuela, the direct economic impacts are much the same.
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Q1 2026 Outlook
Growth Up and Inflation Down! THE BIG 3__ Disinflation accelerating CPI, shelter, goods and energy all cooling __ Liquidity + Leverage More of everything in the system __ Hard Assets and Unlikely Winners Metals...
Read MoreA Look At Why Metals Fell Friday
Metal markets experienced one of their most dramatic reversals in years this last Friday, with precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all recording double digit losses. Silver prices especially saw a sharp reversal...
Read MoreGeopolitics in 2026
Geopolitics in 2026 The global backdrop right now is unusually busy. Multiple flashpoints are competing for attention at the same time; and when headlines overlap, markets can move fast, even if the underlying economics haven’t changed...
Read MoreQ4 2025 Outlook
So much for a global recession (for now)! Inflation, still Hot, cold, seasonal, Credit’s Comeback, More credit availability and lower household leverage, Global Winners and Losers. The world is...
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Q1 2024 Outlook
Buckle up for an invigorating election season. THE BIG 3 __ Growth Slowing At the very least, we expect growth to stagnate in 2024. __ Jobs Can the government keep up the hiring? __ Election General election years are traditionally...
Read MoreJust Wing It!
It is a best practice for bank treasury teams to hedge interest rate risk and diversify across the yield curve. Or you could just wing it! Ultimately, the leadership at SIVB was comically stupid in managing the bank’s risk. Founders...
Read MoreSame Same, But Different, But Still the Same
At this point, it has become evident that there is nowhere to hide in the market. More specifically, every major asset class is down on the year. US, international, and emerging markets stocks are all down over 25% YTD*. Investment...
Read MoreThe World is Scary: War and Inflation
I initially sat down to write this note with the intention of explaining why global markets and commodities are reacting the way they are to the crisis in Ukraine. Given the intensity of the news cycle, I thought it would be more...
Read MoreIs Permanent Life Insurance A Good Idea?
I recently had an interesting interaction on social media with a slew of insurance people regarding the benefits of permanent life insurance as it pertains to a financial plan. I found that most participants in the conversation were...
Read MoreBudgeting - #CFG-U
Updated: Mar 15, 2022 Budgeting is a polarizing topic in many American households. Some find budgeting to be a hassle, restrictive, and stressful. Others find NOT budgeting to be a hassle, restrictive, and stressful. One thing we can...
Read MoreCrazy Pills
Updated: Mar 15, 2022 Philosophically speaking, this country is about as divided as I’ve seen it. This sentiment has been echoed by almost everyone I pose the question to. Obviously, major civil rights issues created a greater...
Read MoreIRA - SEP and SIMPLE #CFG-U
Updated: Mar 15, 2022 IRA stands for Individual Retirement Account. If you have not read about the most common IRAs, Traditional and Roth, you should start with that post. IRAs are designed for individuals to save for retirement with...
Read MoreIRA - Traditional and Roth #CFG-U
Updated: Mar 15, 2022 IRA stands for Individual Retirement Account. As you may have guessed, these accounts are for individuals to save for retirement. What you may not know is the unique tax advantages associated with each and some of...
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